Cultural Foresight uses culture as guidance for the future. Culture is understood as a kind of first artificial intelligence that shapes our knowledge and behavior. It's about assessing and understanding cultural influences and imprints.
How does culture change?
How does culture change us?
A consultancy cycle comprises Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), the formulation of scenarios, and a reverse process of reconstruction.
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Deconstruction implies that Causal Layered Analysis helps us understand the present. In doing so, we are guided by facts. Recognizing a complex reality is essential.
By reconstruction, we understand the formulation and design of new narratives to actively inspire ourselves and the discourse towards a preferred future. In this way, we create culturally anchored growth strategies.
Through deconstruction to the development of preferred scenarios and meaningful strategies.
The integration of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) with scenario design allows us to actively influence cultural developments.
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) helps us to explore deeper aspects of current events – from the obvious litany to the myths and metaphors deeply rooted in our minds.
We call this deconstruction.
This thorough analysis is the starting point for developing diverse future scenarios that represent far more than mere extensions of trends. Scenario design enables us to anticipate the insights gained into the future.
Progressive anticipation in this sense means orienting oneself to facts, in order to not only passively extend cultural developments but to work with them in an actively communicative framework.
Cultural foresight uses culture as a guide for the future. Culture is understood here as a type of first artificial intelligence that shapes our knowledge and behavior.
We identify patterns and opportunities at the various levels of reality and use our gained understanding to prepare desirable visions of the future and strategically approach their implementation. The approach aims to achieve culturally anchored growth strategies and ultimately true progress that genuinely justifies investments in the future.
We call this reconstruction.
Litany
Here, the visible and often simplified problems are presented, as they frequently appear portrayed in public discussions through the media. The aim is to identify and question the superficial trends and topics.
What we know about complex realities is represented through media. Here, we encounter the outstanding problems and trends, the quantified reports, and the so-called official representations of an assumed reality.
What is conveyed in the news chains?
What numbers and information are given?
What events can we observe?
Systemic Causes
At this level, we examine the social, economic, political, and historical factors that lead to the previously observed litany. It is about processes and the mechanisms behind them.
This level analyzes systemic causes and interactions that are often overlooked. We are interested in what lies behind the visible phenomena and what political structures or normative traditions influence the worldview.
Here, critical thinking (as a sense) is needed to question existing systems in order to arrive at new insights later.
Worldviews & Ideologies
It concerns deeply rooted assumptions, prejudices, and debates that shape our understanding of the world. Here, it is analyzed how diverse worldviews create and justify subjective realities.
The level of worldviews deals with the fundamental ideological foundations and debates that influence our perception. Postmodern relativisms and ethical nihilism are critically examined. This layer demands a philosophical reflection on values, truth, and reality.
What foundations underpin our convictions and beliefs? It is about values, beliefs, and our way of approaching the world, understanding, and interpreting it.
Myths & Metaphors
The deepest level includes myths and their accompanying metaphors as collective cultural stories and archetypes. This level illuminates cultural narratives and emotional dimensions that often operate unconsciously.
These unconscious structures shape our identity and actions. We need a cultural sensitivity and a significant degree of historicity to decipher these myths and understand their significance in the context of present challenges.
The deepest level encompasses the collective archetypes, stories, and emotional resonances that shape our understanding of reality. These often unconscious narrative structures provide the emotional energy and meaning for every other level.
Scenario planning creates a space for creative thinking, allowing us to manage uncertainties and develop innovative solutions. It forms the bridge between the analysis of the past and present (deconstruction) and the shaping of a desirable future (reconstruction).
The four archetypes of the future were discovered through empirical research at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies in 1979 and further developed by Jim Dator, Director of the Ph.D. Program for Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. They have been used in future studies for five decades.
It is important to understand the formulation of at least these scenarios as an act of anticipation. As an exercise that serves to be honest in order to recognize the preferred development.
Continuation
Describes a future based on the continuous advancement of existing trends. This perspective assumes steady progress and growth without major systemic disruptions.
Collapse
Portrays a future where existing systems and structures fail. This can be triggered by ecological crises, economic instability, or social conflicts, leading to a "lower" developmental stage.
Discipline
Represents a future stabilized by strict rules, control, or conscious cooperation. Here, the orderly management of challenges is paramount.
Transformation
This scenario would describe a fundamental change through new paradigms, technologies, or social innovations. This future differs radically from known patterns.
Reconstruction is a central component of the Cultural Strategic Foresight approach, which aims to transform the insights gained from deconstruction and scenario development into transformative courses of action. It follows a reverse logic to Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and is guided by four essential steps.
Better Narratives
Development of new stories that inspire and make alternative futures tangible.
In this phase, new narratives are developed that inspire and make alternative futures tangible. These stories serve as a bridge between the analyzed myths and metaphors of the layers analysis and the concrete courses of action.
The aim is to find narratives that are both emotionally engaging and culturally relevant to foster acceptance and engagement.
New Convictions
The new narratives lead to a reflection on existing worldviews and ideologies.
This step promotes new convictions that enable change and challenge existing thought patterns.
It's about questioning deeply rooted assumptions and creating space for innovative perspectives.
Social and systemic concerns
Collective needs and structural changes that are necessary to implement the developed scenarios are identified here.
This includes the analysis of social dynamics and systemic barriers as well as the development of strategies for sustainable transformation.
The focus is on the connection between individual values and societal structures.
New Values and Strategies
Finally, values and strategies are defined that can support long-term change.
This step connects the previous phases with concrete actions and policy recommendations.
The result is a coherent vision that sustains itself as an agile mission because it is both culturally sensitive and practically implementable.
The Cultural Strategic Foresight approach combines the analysis of the past and present with the design of desirable futures. It is based on three central phases: Deconstruction, Scenario Development, and Reconstruction.
Deconstruction
This phase analyzes a problem in four levels of depth – from the superficial litany through systemic reasons and worldviews to the underlying myths and metaphors. The goal is to reveal the cultural and structural dimensions of a problem.
Scenario Development
Building on the insights from deconstruction, alternative futures are designed. Using Dator's archetypes (continuity, decline, transformation, discipline) or other creative approaches, possible developments are visualized to identify opportunities and risks.
Reconstruction
In this phase, findings are used to develop transformative courses of action. By creating better narratives, new beliefs, social concerns, as well as new values and strategies, a sustainable future is shaped.
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Fee
Access to our public consultations is open to all interested individuals. We are pleased to offer individual consultations by appointment.
We kindly ask companies to send us their project inquiries. As part of a white-label model, consulting companies have the opportunity to integrate our approach as a complementary offering ('Add-on') into existing consulting mandates.
Organizations and institutions will find in us a reliable partner to work effectively on behalf of their clients or publicly under their own name.
Always complimentary
Öffentlich
Our public consultations on "Doing Futures" are open to all interested parties. We are happy to offer individual future consultations by prior appointment.
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Duration 12+ months
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Institutions find in us a reliable partner to collaboratively work on preferred future scenarios in the best interest of their clients and partners. Provide orientation through progressive anticipation.
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